Deputy President William Ruto is banking on Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi and his FORD Kenya counterpart Moses Wetang’ula to dislodge the ODM leader Raila Odinga from the Mulembe nation.
Ever since teaming up with the deputy president, Mudavadi and Wetang’ula have continued to express confidence they will deliver over 80% of the Mulembe vote basket.
Speaking on KTN News recently Mudavadi claimed that the ODM leader has managed to seal the region’s votes in the region in past elections due to his (Mudavadi’s) support and forming alliances with other Western leaders.
“Odinga has garnered support because we supported him, campaigned for him, and ceded the ground for him. He did not parachute and pick it up, people worked for him; including me, Wetangula, and many others,
“Wait until August 9 and Kenyans will see that the political mood in Western has completely changed,” Mudavadi said.
But an analysis of the 2013, and 2017 presidential elections results depict a different scenario from what Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are envisioning.
In the 2007, 2013, and 2017 general elections, Odinga bagged the lion’s share of the region’s votes for his presidential bids, at the same time also bagging the highest number of Members of Parliament.
In the 2013 presidential elections, Raila Odinga got 58.95 of the total votes cast even with Musalia Mudavadi also contesting for the presidency.
The ANC leader got 26.25 percent of Mulembe nation votes in an election where President Uhuru Kenya won.
In Vihiga County, the home county of Mudavadi, Raila got 46.4 % compared to 49.19 % of the ANC leader.
In Kakamega county which is the most populous county, Raila got 63.8 percent, while in Busia County he got 85.6 percent.
In the 2017 elections, Raila got 1,320,000 votes which translates to 77.8 percent with the support of both Mudavadi and Wetang’ula with the ODM leader still performing well in the counties of Kakamega and Busia.
With reports emerging that both Mudavadi and Wetang’ula have a target of delivering 70% of Western votes to be able to get 30 % of DP Ruto’s government, past results show it will be hard to deliver.
For example, past results show Raila Odinga has total control of Busia County where he has consistently gotten over 80% in previous elections.
Looking at other elective positions clearly shows that Mudavadi and Wetang’ula have little support in Busia county.
The political influence of Ford Kenya leader is majorly felt in the counties of Bungoma and Trans Nzoia.
For Mudavadi and Wetang’ula to deliver 70% they have to lock out the ODM leader from Kakamega and Busia which will be tall order bearing in mind he has a fanatical following in those counties.
Speaking on Citizen TV on Thursday, May 12, lawyer Otiende Amollo said that Kenya Kwanza Western leaders will not get as many votes from the region because the majority of the over 2,500,000 voters were supporting ODM leader Raila Odinga’s bid.
“I do not think Musalia and the Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula can garner the 70 percent votes from the Western region. Western Kenya is the bedroom of Baba (Raila).” Otiende said.
Kakamega has the highest number of registered voters at 743,736, Bungoma 559,850, Busia 351,048 and Vihiga 272,409, and Trans Nzoia 339,622 votes.
