Political analyst Herman Manyora holds that ODM Raila odinga leader will get fewer votes in the 2022 presidential race compared to what he garnered 2017 General Election if President Uhuru Kenyatta fails to broker a truce between the One Kenya Alliance principals and Raila Odinga.
Speaking in his weekly political analysis posted to his YouTube channel, the political analyst argued the recent dissolution of the National Super Alliance (NASA) will cost Raila Odinga a good chunk of his traditional voting bloc.
“Certainly, the numbers will go down because of his poor working relationship with One Kenya Alliance principals,” Manyora said.
The analyst however believes even with the expected fewer votes, Raila Odinga still stands a big chance of winning the presidency compared to William Ruto.
Manyora said unlike Ruto, Raila does not need the whole of Mt Kenya votes, he only needs to ensure he prevents Ruto from getting more than 70% of votes to be cast in the larger Central Kenya region.
Mt Kenya is increasingly becoming the most on-demand voting bloc ahead of the 2022 General Election with every presidential hopefull seeking to get a share of the region’s vote.
In 2013 and 2017 General Election, Uhuru and Ruto got over 90% of the votes from the region but this is credited to the fact the region ha their son (President Uhuru) on the ballot.
The trio of Musala Mudavadi (ANC), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), and Moses Wetang’ula (Ford Kenya) worked closely with former Prime Minister in the 2017 presidential race under the NASA coalition where Raila garnered 6.8 million votes against President Uhuru Kenyatta who scooped 8.2 million votes.
But Mudavadi, Kalonzo, and Wetang’ula have since vowed not to work with the opposition chief Raila Odinga ahead of the 2022 presidential elections over what they term as mistrust.
In June, former vice president Kalonzo Musyoka vowed he can never contest as Raila Odinga’s running mate for a record third time.
“I am not a weakling… Raila and I have never sat to discuss 2022. I will be the most stupid person on earth to support Raila Odinga for president for the third time without a measure of reciprocity,” Kalonzo Musyoka said.
While President Uhuru has been secretly rooting for opposition unity to take on his estranged deputy president, the OKA principals have vowed that they will only work with Raila Odinga only if he joins them as an equal partner.
This basically means that Uhuru’s handshake partner will have to support one of them for the top seat citing that they will have to stick to their 2017 memorandum of understanding.
