With 173 days to the General Election, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s next political move holds key to whoever will win the August 9 presidential race.
While the chance of the former vice president succeeding President Uhuru Kenyatta is slim, any of his moves has, without doubt, a direct impact on whoever will win the race.
Ever since ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula bolted out of One Kenya Alliance (OKA) it was widely expected that Kalonzo will shift camp and support ODM leader Raila Odinga.
Surprisingly the Wiper leader has kept Kenyans guessing, at one point saying he will be on the ballot, but not ruling out formatting an alliance with like-minded parties.
On Monday, January 24, after a day-long meeting, the Wiper National Executive committee resolved that its leader Kalonzo Musyoka will go all the way to the ballot in the August election.
“Our party leader Kalonzo Musyoka cannot abandon the race. His candidature was decided by the NDC. We had resolved he will vie for president,” the Wiper party said.
Senior Counsel Ahmednassir Abdulahi last year opined that Kalonzo Musyoka’s candidature will have a toll on ODM’s Raila Odinga’s fifth stab at the top seat but on the other hand it will favor Deputy President William Ruto.
“Like it or hate it…Kalonzo is the 2022 kingmaker! If runs for the presidency Raila’s chance drops to 20-25% while Ruto’s chance goes to 60-65%,” said Ahmednassir.
Even though Kalonzo has insisted on going ahead with his presidential ambition, some of his close allies have the opinion that such a route won’t bear fruits.
Makueni senator cam wiper vice-chair Mutula Kilonzo Jr says even though Kalonzo is a rock and a hard place, his next move can determine the trajectory of the next presidential election.
“He has serious issues with Raila and Ruto. Going alone will be a guaranteed loss and joining any of them will require him to step down all issues he has raised or step down, if he can.,” Mutula said recently.
“Joining either Raila or Ruto will come at a cost. It is the cost he will need to consider because the community does not want to be in the opposition again. The options are thinning fast and furiously…in reality, I don’t envy this position,” Mutula added.
Kalonzo Musyoka’s number ahead of Ausgust election
An analysis of Kalonzo Musyoka’s performance in the subsequent presidential elections shows an upward streak, a clear indicator that he has maintained the grip on his political base.
In 2007, the Wiper leader garnered 879,903 votes translating into 8.9% of the votes cast in fact had he supported Raila Odinga who got 4,352,993, the ODM leader would have won the 2007 elections.
In 2013, during the joint ticket with Raila Odinga under CORD, it is estimated that Kalonzo delivered 900,405 votes to Raila’s vote basket just from the three Ukambani counties out of the 1,068,684 registered voters.
During the first round of the 2017 presidential election, Kalonzo’s political base contributed 968,437 votes to Raila Odinga’s overall performance.
It is important to note that According to the IEBC new data records, the lower Eastern part of Kenya currently has 1,697,003 registered voters an increment of 12.09% of the 2017 voters.
The above trend and data give a clear clue on the relevance of the Wiper leader in the August 9 presidential election.
It’s also interesting to note that the Kamba community has significant votes in Nairobi, Mombasa, Kwale, and Taita Taveta counties.
In fact, data published by the IEBC in 2013 showed that with 15 percent, the Kamba vote was the third-largest in Mombasa after the Miji Kenda (29 percent) and Luo (17 percent).
From these numbers, it is clear that ODM leader Raila Odinga would suffer a setback were he to lose the Ukambani voting bloc that he got in 2013 and 2017.
Even though the former prime minister is banking on the support of Mt Kenya through his handshake partner President Uhuru, he can’t afford to lose the Wiper leader.
At one-point political analyst, Herman Manyora said that Raila Odinga would get a sizeable share of the Ukambani votes even without Kalonzo Musyoka.
“If Kalonzo stands on his own and Raila stands with Kivutha, Mutua & Ngilu, he will get 30% of Ukambani,” Manyora said.
But it should be pointed out that Kenyan politics is driven by tribal kingpins who usually have sway on how a particular community votes.
The expected impact of Kalonzo Musyoka’s political move could have informed the spirited effort by the Azimio team to woo the Wiper leader.
Speaking recently Wycliffe Oparanya, the ODM deputy party leader revealed that OKA is likely to join Azimio la Umoja ahead of the August election.
” Of course, we would like to work with Kalonzo Musyoka, he is a critical partner in this struggle. I will not deny that both sides are showing signs of coming together. We have no problem with OKA, they are very close colleagues, we are opportunistic in the near future we will come together possible so that we are a stronger force to face the Kenya Kwanza coalition,” Governor Oparanya said.
Deputy President William Ruto and his brigade have also been campaigning in the Ukambani region, but their chances of controlling the region are slim.
Political pundits opine that DP Ruto will be happy to see Kalonzo run for the presidency than join hands with Raila Odinga.
If Kalonzo goes up to the ballot, there are chances of having a presidential run-off as none of the candidates might garner 50+1% as required by the Constitution.
But if he supports any of the two leading contenders, then whoever he supports has a high probability of winning the 2022 presidency.
Even though Kalonzo Musyoka has been labeled as a Watermelon in politics for his inability to state his political stand, 2022 is different as whichever ‘watermelon decision’ he makes will impact the outcome of who succeeds President Uhuru.