Kivumbi.co.ke looks at all the scenarios that could derail the swearing-in of President Uhuru’s successor.
With all indications that the August polls will be so tight, no candidate is likely to meet the 50+1 threshold required in the Presidential bid meaning that inevitably the country would head to a runoff.
If no candidates get 50 %+1, a fresh election will be called within 30 days after the first election.
Former Kiambu Governor William Kabogo has also envisioned the likelihood of a runoff in the coming presidential elections.
“I smell a rerun, it’s imminent. Like I said before the choice of a running mate will decide the 5th. Am not a witch neither am I a prophet but I see.” Kabogo said on Twitter.
With this scenario, it means that a fresh presidential election will be held around September 16, 2022.
President Uhuru might continue being in office if the Judicial process comes into play, where the Supreme Court is asked to determine the validity of the election outcome.
In this scenario, the Supreme Court would invalidate the elections completely meaning that Kenyans would have to vote for the same candidates for a second time.
If the Supreme Court invalidates the election results like what happened in 2017, a new election will be called within 60 days as required by the Constitution.
In the event, no candidate gets 50% +1 votes, Kenyans will head to a run-off election which might take place around December.
A candidate decertified with the outcome of a presidential runoff might again take the matter to the Supreme Court for determination.
If the Supreme Court again invalidates the election outcome, IEBC will have to call for a fresh election and this could happen around the end of February 2023.
According to the constitution, for candidate to be declared elected as President if the candidate receives more than half of all the votes cast in the election; and at least twenty-five per cent of the votes cast in each of more than half of the counties.
The Constitution also provides that a presidential election shall be canceled and a new election held if; no person has been nominated as a candidate before the expiry of the period set for the delivery of nominations; if a candidate for election as President or Deputy President dies on or before the scheduled election date; or a candidate who would have been entitled to be declared elected as President dies before being declared elected as President