Political analysts have billed this year’s election as one of the most competitive in Kenya’s history, pitting Deputy President William Ruto against the godfather of opposition politics Raila Odinga.
There is already fear that the cut-throat competition for the top seat might fail to produce an outright winner hence forcing a run-off.
In a move that analysts opined was aimed at producing a winner in round one, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) cleared four candidates out of the more than 50 that had presented their papers for clearance.
However, an opinion poll released by the Intel Research Solutions (IRS) on Tuesday, July 5, revealed that neither Ruto nor Raila will win in round one.
According to the survey, the UDA presidential flag bearer William Ruto’s popularity dropped from 51.2 percent in an earlier poll released by the IRS in June to 49.9 percent, a drop of 1.3 percentage points.
Azimio la Umoja- One Kenya coalition party presidential candidate Raila Odinga maintained his popularity at 42.5 percent while Roots party of Kenya George Wajackoyah and Agano presidential candidate David Mwaure’s popularity stood at 2.8 and 1.1 percent respectively.
While none of the presidential candidates crossed the 50 percent plus one vote required in the constitution, Intel Research argued that a run-off is not a possibility because a whopping 3.7 percent of voters were still undecided.
“A runoff is not a possibility in this case, given that there is a month of the intense campaign ahead to garner the minimum 50+1,” Intel Research Solutions said.
Earlier on, Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru had foreseen a runoff in the 2022 Presidential elections claiming that no current presidential candidate seems to have what it takes for a first-round win.
“It is very possible that we could end up in a run-off if we do not do our mathematics correctly. Therefore, the determining team (in case of a presidential election re-run) will be the third team,
“It will determine who is going to become president. Depending on whether they back A or B,” Anne Waiguru said.
