Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga are currently the most formidable presidential aspirants enjoying high-intensity 2022 campaigns.
They appear to have gathered the necessary political capital and stamina to sustain a series of flashy campaigns countrywide without running out of resources.
But the question of Raila’s advancing age and whether or not he will have the capacity to sustain the upcoming political showdown, which is likely to be characterized by pomp and colour, has been boggling the minds of a section of political enthusiasts, including some of his diehard supporters.
Although the ODM leader is known for mounting earthshaking campaigns, his political stamina has been waning over time and 2022 could be a trying moment for him.
On the other hand, his political nemesis, DP Ruto, has been getting stronger and better each day. For the last four years, the second in command has been running popularisation campaigns across the country without relenting.
A recent analysis of his tours indicated he staged 135 rallies across 20 counties within a month, this translates to at least four rallies per day.
A close look at Raila’s movements within the same period indicates he addressed less than 30 political rallies before he left the country for the United Arab Emirates for a week-long meeting that started on October 30.
Upon returning on Friday, November 5, the former premier proceeded to address a series of rallies in Nyandarua county but was forced to cut short the tour over what some insiders suspect was as a result of fatigue.
This month, between November 1 and November 6, Ruto has already addressed 21 rallies in counties of Kisii, Nyamira, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Kiambu, Samburu, and Murang’a.
With more than 20 days left on his diary, Ruto could again hit 135 rallies or more before November ends. It’s the fast pace the DP has set that is likely to trouble Raila and condemn him to play catch-up politics until the end.
Although some analysts have argued that Ruto might get fatigued along the way and struggle to the touchline, his past record in mobilising and pushing things to the very end confirms otherwise.
In 2017, Ruto was the force behind Jubilee’s electric political rallies that painted the country red and overshadowed Raila’s NASA coalition, which had brought together political heavyweights like Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka, and Moses Wetang’ula.
According to insiders, the DP changed the Jubilee campaign schedule and fixed all the rallies planned for a whole week to be done within two days.
In a single day, Jubilee addressed at least 8 rallies countrywide while NASA managed between four to five rallies.
Some of the Jubilee politicians allied to Uhuru have on several occasions admitted that indeed Ruto was a key factor in Jubilee’s victory in 2017.
Gender CAS Rachel Shabesh is on record Jubilee would have had a rough time facing off with Raila without Ruto’s input.
“Let me admit before you today, were it not for Ruto, Jubilee won’t have beaten NASA, that I can tell you for sure,” Shabesh was filmed admitting in a video.
Others who have acknowledged the DP’s political capital include Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu and Nairobi senator Johnson Sakaja, both of whom were elected on the ruling party’s ticket.
In 2013, the second in command pulled a last-minute political move that sunk Raila’s presidential ambitions when he teamed up with Uhuru to form a Jubilee coalition.
Ruto had worked with Raila in the 2007 contest under the Pentagon movement. This is regarded as one of the most formidable political coalitions that Raila has ever formed.
Again, Ruto was very influential in rallying Kenyans behind Raila’s presidential bid and fought to the bitter end.
In most of his rallies, the DP has been accusing a section of his former allies of being lazy and expecting to be spoonfed instead of fighting for victory.
The DP has also been attributing Raila’s ascendence to the prime minister’s position in 2008, and Uhuru’s victory in 2013 and 2017, to his political input.
“In 2007 I supported Raila Odinga until he became prime minister, in 2013 I supported my friend Uhuru Kenyatta until he won, in 2017 I backed him again and he won. When the court nullified our victory I still supported him through the repeat presidential race. But this time I have decided that I will support hustlers,” Ruto said in one of his numerous rallies.
With approximately nine months to the General Election, Ruto appears stronger and more energetic like never before, while Raila looks a bit weary compared to his previous natural political enthusiasm and charisma.
Age appears to be catching up with him and his team may be forced to step up and reinvigorate his campaigns to match Ruto’s pace before it’s too late.
