Political analyst Herman Manyora has claimed that Deputy President William Ruto needs the Mt Kenya voting block more than his arch-rival the ODM leader Raila Odinga in the August 9 presidential election.
Speaking on the TV47 Pundits night program, on Monday, February 14, Manyora said that the 2022 election outcome lies in the hands of the Mt Kenya region.
“This election will be won or lost on the mountain, first in terms of the turnout. Will Ruto excite sufficient turnout? we leave that to be answered on August 9. The provisional answer will be no.” Herman Manyora said.
The political analyst opined that DP Ruto’s chances of winning the 2022 presidential election lie squarely in his ability to get maximum votes from President Uhuru’s backyard.
Manyora insists that Ruto must garner over 80 % of the Mt Kenya votes just as Uhuru did in 2013 and 2017 for him to trounce Raila.
“Uhuru and Ruto won in 2013/17. Where did their numbers come from? has anything changed? where did Raila get his numbers? has anything changed?
“If you do serious scientific calculations in terms politics because politics is science, you realize that for Ruto to win this election he will need to maintain the numbers of 2017 more specifically Ruto will need to keep the mountain,” Manyora said.
Based on traditional voting partners, Manyora said that Raila has an up hand in most parts of the country apart from the Mt. Kenya region.
“Numbers, if you look at Raila for example in 2007, he won six hands down out eight. He shared Nairobi with Kibaki. Kibaki won only Central province,” Manyora said.
During the 2013 General Election Jubilee Alliance canned 6,173,433 votes out of which Mt Kenya contributed more than 50% votes with Raila Odinga getting 5,340,546 without the support of Mt. Kenya.
It is worth pointing out that in the 2013 election, the former prime minister had only partnered with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
In the 2017 General Election Jubilee party got 8,223,369 votes across the country with Mt Kenya still contributing more than 49% of the votes.
Based on the 2013, 2017 Mt Kenya voting block contribution towards President Uhuru Kenyatta’s overall performance, Deputy President William Ruto must retain the region in the August election.
Munyora’s comments come after President Uhuru openly declared Raila Odinga as his preferred successor a matter that has rattled the deputy president in the hunt for the vote-rich region.
