The ODM leader Raila Odinga has dethroned Deputy President William Ruto to become the most preferred presidential candidate according to the latest monthly opinion polls.
According to the poll by Radio Africa Group released on Wednesday, March 16, Raila will be elected the president if elections were held today.
The poll shows that47.4 percent of respondents would vote for Raila as the president if elections were held today, compared to Ruto’s 43.4 percent.
The popularity of Raila has moved from 35.1 percent in February to 47.4 percent in March, an impressive margin of 12.3 percent while that for Ruto has dropped from 47.1 percent in February to 43.4 percent in March.
The poll which was conducted between March 7 and 11 shows that the Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who recently declared ‘Raila Tosha’ had a popularity rate of 1.9 percent of the votes, while the rest of the presidential candidates would get just 1.2 percent between them.
Even though the former prime minister has been closing the gap on Ruto, this is the first time in two years that Raila has outperformed the deputy president.
This could be attributed to a number of factors such as President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Sagana 3 meeting where he publicly rallied his Mt Kenya backyard to support the ODM leader.
For instance, according to the polls, Raila’s support in the Mt Kenya region has increased from 27.0 percent in February to 28.2 percent in March.
According to the polls, the ODM leader is comfortably ahead of DP Ruto in 6 out of the 8 former provinces.
The latest polls show that Raila will win Nyanza, Coast, Western, North Eastern, Lower Eastern, and Nairobi.
In Nyanza, Coast and Nairobi Raila leads with 78 %, 66 %, and 54.4% respectively against Ruto’s 17%, 26%, and 38.1% respectively.
Even after ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and his Ford Kenya counterpart Moses Wetang’ula threw their weight behind DP Ruto, Raila still leads in the Western region with 47.6 % compared to Ruto’s 43.6%.
According to the poll, DP Ruto only leads in Rift Valley and the Central region, where he has 64.75 % and 57.2 % respectively.
In the deputy president’s backyard, the ODM leader has a popularity rate of 30.7 percent.
With Raila leading at 47.1 percent, it means that if elections were held today, there will be no outright winner in round one, as none of the leading contenders will be able to garner 50 %+1 votes of the total votes cast as required by the constitution.
